Our most important findings

Ausnahmeregelungen sollten eng gefasst sein. (Nachhaltige) Biomasse ist knapp und sollte Gebäuden vorbehalten sein, die anders schwer zu versorgen sind. Wasserstoff steht mittelfristig im Wärmemarkt nicht ausreichend zur Verfügung und stellt keine sinnvolle Umsetzungsoption dar.

Dies unterstützt den notwendigen Hochlauf auf 500.000 Wärmepumpen pro Jahr ab 2024 und ermöglicht deutschen Wärmepumpenherstellern, Kostenreduktionspotenziale durch stärker automatisierte Fertigungsprozesse zu erschließen.

Wärmepumpen am Markt erfüllen schon heute nahezu alle denkbaren Anforderungen. In sehr vielen Fällen arbeiten Wärmepumpen auch mit vorhandenen Heizkörpern erfolgreich und liefern kostengünstiger Wärme als Gaskessel.

Um ausreichend Fachkräfte zu qualifizieren, müssen die Ausbildungsinfrastruktur gefördert, die Fortbildung finanziert und die Ausbildungscurricula aktualisiert werden. So werden neue, attraktive Berufsfelder geschaffen, während Qualität und Tempo des Wärmepumpen-Einbaus steigen.

Such a fully decarbonised system will be much more decentralised while relying on renewables, flexibility and an active ­demand-side. The EU Commission should initiate a well-prepared debate on necessary further adjustments to EU power market rules during the legislative period that starts in 2024.

Renewables investment should be ramped up to close the supply gap and reduce Europe’s dependence on fossil fuel imports. Annual onshore wind deployment needs to triple while annual offshore wind and solar PV deployment needs to quadruple by 2030. Marginal ­pricing on wholesale markets will ensure the efficient use of electricity, balance supply through cross-border trade and enable demand-side flexibility and storage.

CfDs can ensure predictable revenue streams from renewable energy projects, thus reducing risks for investors and lowering financing costs. CfDs can also facilitate the market integration of renewables and skimming-off of windfall profits, generating revenues that can be used for targeted support. To quickly scale up renewables deployment, investors should be able to decide whether to use government-backed CfDs or to develop merchant-based renewables projects, e.g. through PPAs.

A harmonised EU approach to reducing windfall profits during emergency situations should replace the current inframarginal revenue cap, as the uneven and unpredictable implementation of the revenue cap is scaring off renewables investors. In the medium term, with a growing volume of renewable electricity produced under CfDs and PPAs, windfall profit claw-backs will become less relevant.

Ansonsten ist zu erwarten, dass Ladeinfrastruktur nur in Netzen mit günstigen Anschluss- und fixen Netzbetriebskosten entsteht und für bestimmte Gebiete möglicherweise gar keine Angebote eintreffen. Um das Problem zu lösen, sind zwei Ansätze denkbar: Der Bund sollte entweder verschiedene Netze mit unterschiedlichen Netzkosten in einem Los zusammenlegen oder befristet einen Teil der Netzkosten übernehmen.

Die momentanen Leistungspreise bemessen sich im Regelfall an der Spitzenleistung, unabhängig davon, ob ein Fahrzeug oder sehr viele Fahrzeuge geladen werden. Dies ist nicht sachgerecht, weswegen auch in anderen EU-Ländern die Leistungspreise für Ladeinfrastruktur angepasst werden.

Mittelfristig ist eine an den tatsächlichen Netzausbaukosten angenäherte Entgeltstruktur zu erarbeiten, die weniger auf Jahresleistungspreise abstellt. Die Netzentgelte, gerade auch für das Laden von Elektro-Autos, sollten stärker an den langfristigen Systemkosten und weniger an einer lokalen Situation oder suggerierten Verursachungsgerechtigkeit ausgerichtet werden.

Grid-friendly charging reduces the peak loads created when vehicles and electric heat pumps are charged simultaneously. It can also shift electricity consumption to times with abundant generation from solar photovoltaics and wind turbines.

Without the mobility transition, annual investments of 2.1 billion euros would be needed to accommodate 45 million, instead of 30 million, electric cars.

Electric mobility increases electricity sales, while the overall investment needed for power lines and transformers does not increase. However, it is important that the participants in the mobility transition pay their fair share of grid fees.

To achieve this, grid-friendly managed charging must become the standard. We need secure information and communications technologies, incentives and, if necessary, obligatory managed charging. Precautionary indirect control, in the form of incentives for grid-friendly charging, should take precedence over direct control by the distribution grid operator.

Netzdienliches Laden reduziert Lastspitzen durch gleichzeitig ladende Fahrzeuge und elektrische Wärmepumpen. Außerdem verlagert es Verbrauch in Zeiten mit hohen Einspeisespitzen durch Sonnen- und Windenergieanlagen.

Ohne Mobilitätswende, mit 45 statt 30 Mio. Elektro-Pkw, betragen die jährlichen Investitionen 2,1 Mrd. Euro.

Allerdings muss die Elektromobilität angemessen an der Zahlung der Netzentgelte beteiligt werden.

Hierfür muss netzdienliche Ladesteuerung zum Standard werden. Es braucht sichere Informations- und Kommunikationstechnologie, Anreize und gegebenenfalls Verpflichtungen zur Steuerbarkeit. Präventive, indirekte Steuerung über Anreize zum netzdienlichen Laden sollten Vorrang vor direkter Steuerung durch den Verteilnetzbetreiber haben.

An annual share of at least 33% RES (22% variable renewables – VRES) can easily be integrated, while still maintaining grid stability within a tolerable range. A higher renewable share of 40% (30% VRES) could also be achieved with very low curtailment level.

Indeed, VRES can contribute to maintaining grid stability by providing fast frequency response (FFR). On conservative assumptions, this study shows that such FFR services would enable the existing Japanese transmission grid to incorporate instantaneous VRES penetration levels of up to 60% in eastern Japan and around 70% in western Japan, while still maintaining frequency stability. These assessments confirm the trends observed in 2018 in regions such as Kyushu or Shikoku, where hourly VRES penetration satisfied more than 80% of demand (corresponding to more than 55% of all power generation). By 2030, these high regional infeed levels could become the norm for the Japanese system as a whole. Furthermore, implementing additional technical measures would allow even higher penetration levels to be reached.

Increasing the proportion of VRES in the mix is expected to reduce power line loading in some regions and increase it in other parts of the system. The impact of VRES distribution on the grid must therefore be systematically taken into account in future grid development plans, in order to avoid creating line-loading hotspots.

In particular, renewables should be incorporated into ancillary service provision, since they can contribute to frequency stability, balancing, and voltage control in tandem with other technologies (such as demand side response, conventional generation, and storage).

An annual share of at least 33% RES (22% variable renewables – VRES) can easily be integrated, while still maintaining grid stability within a tolerable range. A higher renewable share of 40% (30% VRES) could also be achieved with very low curtailment level.

Indeed, VRES can contribute to maintaining grid stability by providing fast frequency response (FFR). On conservative assumptions, this study shows that such FFR services would enable the existing Japanese transmission grid to incorporate instantaneous VRES penetration levels of up to 60% in eastern Japan and around 70% in western Japan, while still maintaining frequency stability. These assessments confirm the trends observed in 2018 in regions such as Kyushu or Shikoku, where hourly VRES penetration satisfied more than 80% of demand (corresponding to more than 55% of all power generation). By 2030, these high regional infeed levels could become the norm for the Japanese system as a whole. Furthermore, implementing additional technical measures would allow even higher penetration levels to be reached.

Increasing the proportion of VRES in the mix is expected to reduce power line loading in some regions and increase it in other parts of the system. The impact of VRES distribution on the grid must therefore be systematically taken into account in future grid development plans, in order to avoid creating line-loading hotspots.

In particular, renewables should be incorporated into ancillary service provision, since they can contribute to frequency stability, balancing, and voltage control in tandem with other technologies (such as demand side response, conventional generation, and storage).

An annual share of at least 33% RES (22% variable renewables – VRES) can easily be integrated, while still maintaining grid stability within a tolerable range. A higher renewable share of 40% (30% VRES) could also be achieved with very low curtailment level.

Indeed, VRES can contribute to maintaining grid stability by providing fast frequency response (FFR). On conservative assumptions, this study shows that such FFR services would enable the existing Japanese transmission grid to incorporate instantaneous VRES penetration levels of up to 60% in eastern Japan and around 70% in western Japan, while still maintaining frequency stability. These assessments confirm the trends observed in 2018 in regions such as Kyushu or Shikoku, where hourly VRES penetration satisfied more than 80% of demand (corresponding to more than 55% of all power generation). By 2030, these high regional infeed levels could become the norm for the Japanese system as a whole. Furthermore, implementing additional technical measures would allow even higher penetration levels to be reached.

Increasing the proportion of VRES in the mix is expected to reduce power line loading in some regions and increase it in other parts of the system. The impact of VRES distribution on the grid must therefore be systematically taken into account in future grid development plans, in order to avoid creating line-loading hotspots.

In particular, renewables should be incorporated into ancillary service provision, since they can contribute to frequency stability, balancing, and voltage control in tandem with other technologies (such as demand side response, conventional generation, and storage).

They are also much more sensitive to political and regulatory risks. This is highly relevant when addressing Europe’s 2030 renewables framework consisting of a binding EU target without binding Member States targets.

Perceived ex-ante risks translate into country specific premiums on the costs for renewable energy investments that have nothing to do with technology risks or weather conditions.

It would also allow for broader sharing of the social, economic and health benefits of renewable energy investments, and would particularly benefit EU Member States with lower than average per capita GDP.

Wind and solar are today cheap technologies that are on equal footing with coal and gas. However, high cost of capital oftentimes hinders renewables projects from going forward, even when there is excellent potential. Bridging that gap, a RES-CRF will bring significant cost savings to consumers and taxpayers in those countries

The risk of the financial guarantee underpinning the RES-CRF ever being called is very small. We propose a set of concrete safeguards to ensure only high quality renewable energy investments will benefit and to avoid over-commitments.

Committed public funds to implement Article 3.4 of the new EU Renewable Energy Directive would create scope for establishing the RES-CRF. This would help Europe to meet its 2030-renewable energy target and enable all Member States to benefit from low-cost renewable energy.

A key design feature of the RES-CRF is its flexibility. Being largely based on contractual arrangements, it can be tested in specific sectors or Member States before a wider roll-out. Launching a pilot project before 2020 would help strengthen confidence in the instrument. A pilot can be financed from the running EU budget.