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Hard-to-abate industrial sectors represent a major area of hydrogen demand in the future due to a lack of alternative decarbonization options.
Steel, ammonia, refineries and chemical plants are widely distributed across Europe. To reduce and eventually eliminate their process emissions, 300 TWh of low-carbon hydrogen are required. This number does not factor in the production of high-temperature heat, for which direct electri-fication should be considered first.
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The investment window for fossil-based hydrogen with carbon capture remains open, but in the long run renewable hydrogen will emerge as the most competitive option across Europe.
Given the current asset lifecycle and political commitments, fossil-based hydrogen with carbon capture will remain a viable investment until the 2030s, but strong policies for renewable hydro-gen will shorten the investment window for fossil hydrogen, likely closing it by the end of the 2020s.
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We identify robust no-regret corridors for early hydrogen pipelines based on industrial demand.
Adding potential hydrogen demand from power, aviation and shipping sectors is likely to strengthen the case for an even more expansive network of hydrogen pipelines. However, even under the most optimistic scenarios, any future hydrogen network will be smaller than the cur-rent natural gas network. A no-regrets vision for hydrogen infrastructure needs to reduce the risk of oversizing by focusing on indispensable demand, robust green hydrogen corridors and storage.
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Hard-to-abate industrial sectors represent a major area of hydrogen demand in the future due to a lack of alternative decarbonization options.
Steel, ammonia, refineries and chemical plants are widely distributed across Europe. To reduce and eventually eliminate their process emissions, 300 TWh of low-carbon hydrogen are required. This number does not factor in the production of high-temperature heat, for which direct electrification should be considered first.
-
The investment window for fossil-based hydrogen with carbon capture remains open, but in the long run renewable hydrogen will emerge as the most competitive option across Europe.
Given the current asset lifecycle and political commitments, fossil-based hydrogen with carbon capture will remain a viable investment until the 2030s, but strong policies for renewable hydrogen will shorten the investment window for fossil hydrogen, likely closing it by the end of the 2020s.
-
We identify robust no-regret corridors for early hydrogen pipelines based on industrial demand.
Adding potential hydrogen demand from power, aviation and shipping sectors is likely to strengthen the case for an even more expansive network of hydrogen pipelines. However, even under the most optimistic scenarios, any future hydrogen network will be smaller than the current natural gas network. A no-regret vision for hydrogen infrastructure needs to reduce the risk of oversizing by focusing on indispensable demand, robust green hydrogen corridors and storage.
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