Scenarios on the future of fossil gas in the EU

This project develops scenarios for the use of fossil gas in the energy, buildings and industry sectors that are in line with the EU's transition to climate neutrality.

  • Project Duration: 07/2021 - 03/2022

The recently agreed European Climate Law sets binding targets to reach climate neutrality by latest 2050 and to reduce net domestic greenhouse gas emissions by at least 55 percent by 2030 compared to 1990 levels. The European Climate Law also obliges the EU Commission to propose an indicative GHG emission budget for 2030-2050 when developing its proposal for the EU’s 2040 climate target.
In this context, the study shall quantify the remaining budget for emissions from fossil gas uses in the EU as part of the overall remaining GHG budget for EU, considering the required emission reduction pathways to reach climate neutrality by 2050. The study will assess how much fossil gas uses remain in different sectors (energy, industry, buildings) in the EU and selected member states before climate neutrality must be reached. The study will show how fossil gas uses can be replaced by electrification and renewables, followed by clean hydrogen and synthetic fuels, including a comparison of energy system costs.

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