Countries and regions with favourable conditions for renewable energy generation are well-placed to become global leaders in Power-to-X (PtX) production. Agora Energiewende is a partner of the International PtX Hub, which aims to support the development of sustainable PtX markets within these regions as a building block for the transition towards climate neutrality.
Agora contributes to several activities, including an in-person PtX Training programme in Berlin, and projects in the three partner countries; Morocco, South Africa and Argentina. This comprises two key activities: The Business Opportunity Analyser and energy system Allocation Scenarios for each country.
By 2050, Europe will require hydrogen and its derivatives in the order of 2000 TWh to become climate neutral. The EU’s strategy to end dependence on Russian fossil gas (REPowerEU) has set a target of 10 million tonnes of domestic renewable hydrogen production and 10 million tonnes of imports by 2030. While these political short-term targets are likely too ambitious, they still highlight the importance of imports in achieving European climate and energy security goals.
Currently under development, the Business Opportunity Analyser is an interactive excel tool that aims to promote the export of PtX molecules. The tool will enable users to calculate the delivered cost of PtX molecules from an export country to an import country, highlighting the competitive edge of one country against another (for a range of PtX molecules). This ‘pre-feasibility’ level information will assist in identifying regions with promising business opportunities within the PtX value chain. Such information will also support policymakers in understanding their country's specific PtX cost potentials, thereby assisting in the development of targeted policies to facilitate and unlock investment in PtX value chains.
While the export of molecules represents a key opportunity for countries of the global south, it is equally important to ensure that the PtX economy helps rather than hinders potential PtX export countries' own decarbonization journeys. This entails ensuring that PtX products are allocated to those applications that otherwise cannot be decarbonised. The energy system Allocation Scenarios involve developing a range of detailed energy transition pathways/scenarios for each of the target countries up until 2050. The pathways to be developed will also demonstrate how PtX products can contribute to the decarbonization of power, heat, transport and industrial sectors in the country. The pathways will be analysed in detail, based on an in-depth economic and technical assessment. This comprehensive assessment of the contribution and effect of the production, use, and export of electricity-based molecules shall support the work of the public authorities in their mid-to-long-term planning for a resilient transformation of each of the target countries’ energy systems. Good practices and lessons learned from the country components are disseminated via the International PtX Hub in Berlin to further countries and to inform the debate in other markets.
