A 2050 renewable-based decarbonization pathway for Indonesia

Study on renewable electrification in meeting power, transport, cooling and heating demands in Indonesia

  • Project Duration: 05/2020 - 01/2021

In partnership with the Institute for Essential Services Reform (IESR), the project aims to develop a range of detailed energy transition pathways/scenarios for Indonesia up to 2050 and show how large shares of renewables can be integrated in the power system. The project also explores how bioenergy and renewables-based electrification can contribute to the decarbonization of the power, cooling and heating, and transport systems.

In 2017, the Government of Indonesia published the long-term National Energy Plan (Rencana Umum Energi Nasional) up to 2050. It focuses on energy security and affordability, with optimal use of coal as a national resource. The electricity sector is the largest emitter, accounting for around 70% of the whole energy sector. In the Plan, emissions from the energy sector are projected to increase from 562 Mton CO2eq in 2018 to 1.950 Mton CO2eq by 2050. Though that outcome is 58% less than the projected business-as-usual, the target is only 23% renewable energy in the primary energy mix by 2030 and 31% by 2050. This plan has been widely considered insufficiently ambitious compared to the most recent global development and the net-zero targets of several countries.

As part of its commitments under the United Nations Paris Climate Agreement, in October 2019, the Ministry of Planning (BAPENNAS) published the Low-Carbon Development Initiative, covering development targets including, but also beyond the energy sector, with the aim to achieve Indonesia’s climate objectives and preserving natural resources. The most ambitious scenario puts the share of renewable electricity at 30% in 2045.

The recent development in the Indonesian energy scene emphasizes several strategies for reaching long-term decarbonization: bioenergy and so-called clean coal as the key technologies and higher penetration of electric vehicles in the transport sector.

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